Why Spain can advance
The numbers are almost indecent. Nine scored, none conceded, a D-W-W-W-W route capped by that 1-0 over Portugal where Mikel Merino struck late and Luis de la Fuente's side controlled everything: 1.77 xG against a meagre 0.60 for the Portuguese, who managed no second-half shot on target.
This is not a team that needs chaos. Rodri, Pedri and Olmo strangle the centre of the pitch, Yamal terrorises the right flank in one-against-one duels, and Oyarzabal offers a reliable reference up top with four goals already. Without Amadou Onana, Belgium's midfield loses its main ball-winner, and that is precisely where Spain do their damage. If they starve the Belgian counterattack, the game bends their way.
Why Belgium can advance
Belgium have found their teeth again. Charles De Ketelaere shone as a centre-forward against the USA, two goals and an assist, and Rudi Garcia has genuine luxury on the bench with De Bruyne, Doku and Lukaku. That 4-1 came from 2.15 xG on 15 shots, a genuinely aggressive display.
The route to hurting Spain is clear: transitions into the space behind the Spanish full-backs, De Bruyne threading passes to runners, and box presence from Lukaku or De Ketelaere. Belgium have scored seven across their last two knockout matches, and Courtois behind everything is a safety net that keeps them alive in tight moments. If they land the first blow, this becomes a very different, far more open contest.
What factors can change the balance of power
Onana's serious knee injury is the headline, robbing Belgium of athletic coverage in midfield. Nathan Ngoy returns from suspension, but the bigger question is Garcia's dilemma: repeat the balanced USA setup or unleash De Bruyne, Doku and Lukaku together, risking exposure to Spain's control.
On the Spanish side, Nico Williams' fitness is worth monitoring, while Yamal is a must-start. An early goal either way flips the script, and Belgium's extra-time slog against Senegal could bite in the legs late on. A red card or a rare Spanish defensive lapse after such a long clean sheet are the wildcards.
Final prediction and odds
The market is firm: Spain at 1.62, the draw at 4.00, Belgium out at 5.50. That translates to roughly 59% for Spain, 24% for the draw and 17% for Belgium in 90 minutes, and I broadly agree. Spain's defensive discipline and midfield authority, plus Onana's absence, justify the short price.
My lead call is Spain to win at 1.62. For those wanting a second angle, Under 2.5 at 2.00 has appeal given Spain's suffocating structure, though Belgium's recent scoring makes it higher variance. I expect a controlled 1-0 for Spain, with the Belgians chasing shadows in the second half. If it drifts to a draw, Spain's fresher legs and composure should carry them through extra time. Spain reach the semi-finals.