Why England can advance
I see the main case for England in control. Tuchel's side average 65.3% possession, 1.8 xG, 18.7 shots and 13.0 chances created per game, which is knockout-stage authority on paper. They finished first in a tricky group, and even when the football looked slow against Ghana and Panama, they still limited damage and got the table job done. That matters now, because knockout football often belongs to teams who can win below their best level.
Kane is the obvious finisher with 3 goals, Bellingham gives the midfield its surge and timing, and Saka remains the winger who can turn sterile pressure into actual penetration. I also like the shape England can build with Rice expected back and Anderson adding line-breaking work. Against a likely DR Congo back five, England should have the central overloads to pin the game near the box and force repeat waves of attacks, corners and second balls.
There is also the simple class gap. England have already shown they can score in bursts, as Croatia discovered in the 4-2 opener, while DR Congo have conceded in every group match. If England score first, this could become exactly the kind of game the favourite wants.
Why Congo DR can advance
The underdog case is not fantasy. It starts with structure and belief. Desabre has built a compact side, often with a back five against stronger opponents, and that plan already earned a 1-1 draw with Portugal and kept Colombia to a 1-0 win. DR Congo do not need long possession spells. They need one clean transition, one set-piece delivery, one moment for Wissa.
Wissa is the headline threat with 3 of the team's 4 tournament goals. Bakambu, Mayele and the wide runners can make England uncomfortable, especially around the unsettled right-back area where injuries have pushed Spence toward a high-pressure role. Reuters already noted England's defensive gaps against Panama, and that is the crack DR Congo will try to widen.
From a betting perspective, this is why I understand interest in a stubborn match state. If DR Congo survive the first 30 minutes, England may again look too patient. Compact blocks have slowed them before, and knockout nerves can make a heavy favourite play within itself.
What factors can change the balance of power
England's squad news matters. Reece James is out, Livramento has left camp and Quansah is a major doubt, so the defensive right side is the obvious pressure point. Rice returning would stabilise the centre, but if England's rest defence is loose, DR Congo have the runners to punish it.
An early goal changes everything. If England score first, the 2-0 type script becomes very live. If DR Congo score first, the match becomes emotionally different and the 5.40 draw price starts to look more attractive in-running. A red card would be massive because DR Congo's whole route depends on numbers, shape and distances staying tight. Substitutions also matter, because England have more bench solutions if the game drifts into extra time.
Final prediction and odds
The bookmakers make England strong favourites at 1.27, with the draw at 5.40 and DR Congo at 11.00. That implies about 74% for England, 17% for the draw and 9% for DR Congo, and I broadly agree. My own reading is England 72%, draw 19%, DR Congo 9% in regular time.
I do not love the 1X2 price as a standalone bet, because knockout football and England's tempo issues eat into the value. My preferred angle is Both teams to score, No at 1.47, with Under 2.5 also very close to the script at 1.89. England should dominate territory, but DR Congo are likely to defend in numbers and keep the scoreline narrow for long spells.
My probable score is 2-0 to England. If it reaches extra time at 0-0 or 1-1, I would still lean toward England because of superior depth and more match-winners from the bench. My final call is England to win, most likely in regular time, and advance to the next round.